Birth of a new alliance

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk was surprised when his Greek counterpart George Papandreou cut short their meeting at government headquarters in Warsaw last December, asking if he could have a private room to make "important calls" with his cabinet in Athens. When Tusk asked about the emergency, Papandreou's aides told him that Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has asked for Greece's assistance in putting out the wildfires ablaze on Mount Carmel surrounding Haifa, and that the Greek premier was keen on sending help.

This is perhaps one of the few times when the leader of a country stopped a meeting with another world leader merely to oversee coordination of assistance to a third country. But the incident demonstrates the immense transformation in the relationship between Israel and Greece, as well as other Balkan states, despite the fact that Greece was the last European country to establish diplomatic ties with Israel, in 1992.

Ironically, Greece is the European state that saved Israel from the repercussions of Freedom Flotilla II setting sail towards the shores of Gaza, and blocking a nightmare scenario that Tel Aviv feared -- namely a confrontation between the Israeli navy and activists aboard the vessels. It is a scenario that Netanyahu's government tried to avoid at all cost. The irony is that until very recently, Greece was one of the strongest advocates of Arab causes among European states and supportive of the Palestinian people. In fact, support of Palestinian resistance against occupation was a uniting issue even among sparring political players in Greek politics.

The Greek Socialist Party, Pasok, especially under the leadership of Giorgios Papandreou and Andreas Papendreou -- the incumbent prime minister's grandfather and father, respectively -- who were also prime ministers, was the strongest supporter of the Palestinian cause. The late Palestinian president was a personal friend of Andreas Papandreou.

Since the beginning of June 2010, Israeli- Greek ties were significantly transformed and culminated in a declaration by Papandreou and Netanyahu, during the latter's visit to Athens a few months ago, that the two governments have agreed to cooperate in the fields of intelligence and security. They decided that a joint committee would coordinate strategic cooperation, and to expand cooperation in political and economic fields. This partnership was quickly translated into critical strategic services for Israel, such as allowing the Israeli Air Force to conduct extensive war games over Greek territories. So far, Israel has held two such military exercises, in 2010 and 2011.

The agreement came at a difficult time for Israel, since it loosely followed a decision by Turkey to ban the Israeli Air Force from using Turkish airspace for military exercises in response to the events of Freedom Flotilla I at the end of May 2010. Israel's small geographic size required it to seek Turkey's assistance to hold important air exercises; especially that Israel's leadership at the time was plotting to attack Iranian nuclear facilities as a top option in dealing with the Iranian nuclear programme. In recognition of the importance of ties between the two sides, Israel appointed a veteran diplomat, Arye Mekel, as ambassador in Athens -- he is known in Tel Aviv as one of the best experts on international and diplomatic relations.

Turkey, once one of Israel's closest allies, is the archenemy of Greece, which is why leaders in Tel Aviv and Athens took the opportunity to forge new bonds amongst themselves. The Israelis were looking for alternatives to make up for losses in military cooperation between Ankara and Tel Aviv, especially air exercises, intelligence cooperation, arms deals, etc. Athens found opportunity in these developments to use its relations with Israel to approach the critical economic crisis overwhelming Greece.

Israel realised the potential of strong ties with Greece and their strategic rewards for the Zionist entity, so it manipulated the hostile history between Turkey and Greece by emphasising the importance of developing relations between Tel Aviv and Athens to confront Turkish "ambitions". Israeli researcher Abirama Golan states that Israeli leaders frequently pointed out to Greek officials what Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu wrote in his book Strategic Depth as proof of Erdogan's ambition of reincarnating the Ottoman Empire in modern times and with new tools. Also, that Davutoglu's book is proof of the neo-Ottoman attempt to recover the country's former influence.

The Israelis do not hesitate to use historic hostilities rooted in the era when Greece and other Balkan states came under Ottoman rule for hundreds of years. Israeli Ambassador to Bulgaria Noah Gal-Gendler admits that Israel focuses on the historic and cultural background as an incentive to encourage all Balkan states to cooperate with the Zionist entity. It also relies on Islamophobia in Europe to build bonds on new foundations with these countries.

Meanwhile, Papandreou realised that EU assistance would not be enough to save Greece from economic catastrophe, and that it needs to increase foreign investment into the country. His government exerted great efforts to convince foreign firms to invest in Greece, as Israel's leadership scrambled to find a way to prevent Freedom Flotilla II from sailing to Gaza. If Israel were to use military force again to halt the convoy it would further harm Israel's already damaged image on the world stage and also hurt ties with countries whose nationals would be aboard the vessels in solidarity with the Palestinians.

Israel used the Greek economic crisis to serve its own interests. Netanyahu's government consulted with major Jewish organisations in the US to manipulate Greece's dire economic conditions for Tel Aviv's benefit. Netanyahu's office and the leaders of major Jewish organisations in the US agreed that a delegation of organisation representatives would head to Athens to meet with Papandreou, and promise him that these organisations would work on convincing US companies and Jewish businessmen to invest in Greece. In return, Greece would prevent Freedom Flotilla II from sailing from Greek ports. It was a done deal; the Greek government said that its decision to ban the ships from sailing out of its ports was based on Greece's national security.

Washington's official position and that of the UN secretary general that are firmly against Freedom Flotilla II sailing to Gaza also played a role in Greece's decision. Meanwhile, Netanyahu informed Papandreou that Israel could help Greece in overcoming the economic crisis by encouraging hundreds of thousands of Israeli tourists to visit Greece instead of Turkey -- a previously favourite destination for Israeli tourists. Netanyahu told Papandreou that there are 400,000 Israelis looking for holiday destinations and suggested promoting joint tourism packages to Tel Aviv and Athens.

One of the reasons why Greece is developing relations with Israel is its need for Washington's support in its conflict with Turkey regarding the future of Cyprus, and its supposition that cooperating with Israel would improve its standing with the US. While the focus has been the dizzying improvement in Greek-Israeli relations, in reality most Balkan states are now very interested in nurturing ties with Israel and are competing amongst themselves to offer the Zionist entity strategic services.

Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov visited Israel a few months ago and proposed to Netanyahu that Israel's air force should exercise in Bulgarian airspace. Rather unusually, Borisov also initiated a meeting with the chief of the Mossad at the time, Meir Dagan, and offered security and intelligence cooperation with Israel. The Bulgarian prime minister also invited Dagan to visit Sofia and allowed Bulgarian newspapers to publish photos of his meeting with the Mossad official -- unheard of coverage for any Mossad chief's visit to a foreign country. Naturally, Borisov wanted something in return. He asked Israel to help develop Bulgaria's advanced technology industry and receive a percentage of Israeli tourists who had previously travelled to Turkey.

Closer ties between Israel and Greece and Bulgaria are also noticed in Romania, which had preceded Greece in allowing Israel to use its airspace for military exercises. But cooperation ended after an Israeli helicopter exploded over Romania one year ago, killing several Israeli pilots. Meanwhile, Slovenia, Croatia and Macedonia have also signalled their interest in improving relations with Israel.

It seems likely that Balkan states will support the Israeli-US position in rejecting the request by the Arab League to allow the Palestinian state membership in the UN in September

Out in the cold

Awatef Al-Assar filled bags of sand to hold down the sides of the tent in a failed attempt to stabilise it. Her children still remember how hard she tried to hold on to the pole of the tent that was sheltering her and her family last winter as the winds blew hard to uproot it. Meanwhile, trying to help, her husband was shaking with cold and fear from the thunder outside. Rainwater swamped the tent as their efforts failed and the tent collapsed on the heads of the children. The entire family was forced to seek refuge at a nearby house.

Like thousands of others, Al-Assar's home was destroyed during Israel's war on the Gaza Strip. Even now she fears a repeat of the same punishing experience of last winter. Her neighbour, Hajja Fatma Hamdan, who is at the same refuge camp with her family, remembers how she was surprised by the amount of rain filling up the tent while her family slept. They awoke startled, and all they could do was abandon all their possessions and seek shelter elsewhere.

The residents of the refuge camp, which lies close to Beit Lahia, said that uprooted and torn tents resulted in many health problems for the homeless, especially children. The young suffer from vomiting, diarrhoea and stomach cramps. Nehaya, who was widowed when her husband was killed during the war, said that for a long time she was continuously taking her children to a clinic in Beit Lahia for severe cases of colds.

As winter approaches, the occupants of this camp -- like those in other camps -- complain that there are not enough warm blankets. Suleiman Al-Masri, whose home in Beit Hanoun in northeastern Gaza was destroyed, said his family of 15 only received seven blankets from a charity organisation. Nine months after the end of the war, many homeless families still return to their destroyed homes in search of more blankets and warm covers under tons of rubble. Most of these attempts end in failure, either because everything inside is scorched or is buried too deep in the debris.

These families have no refuge except the camps set up by the Hamas government, UNRWA or charities working in Gaza. Camps for those who lost their homes have become widespread in Gaza. In fact, camps were constructed in every area destroyed during the war.

While those whose homes were completely demolished during the war suffer the winter cold, those whose homes were not completely obliterated during the assault also suffer. Windowpanes need to be replaced in many homes to block the bitter cold of winter, but because of the siege the supply of glass is limited and only available via smuggling. This has raised the price of glass unreasonably. The windows of Ghassan Abu Samha's family home, located in Al-Maghazi Refugee Camp in the centre of Gaza, were destroyed by the Israeli onslaught. The eight members of his family will be exposed to the winter chill as the cold season approaches and no repairs have been possible.

Abu Samha told Al-Ahram Weekly that he could not afford to repair the windows with the available glass, which is of poor quality anyway. "It costs 2,500 shekels [$700] to repair, which is a huge sum for me," he continued. "I have no other choice but to cover the windows with plastic which doesn't cost more than 100 shekels." Abu Samha's 10- year-old son Ahmed remembered how he could hardly sleep last winter because of the plastic on his bedroom window. Nonetheless, using plastic to cover broken windowpanes has become the common remedy for many families in Gaza.

Meanwhile, hundreds who live on the border between Israel and the Gaza Strip, and whose homes are intact, have decided to leave out of fear of being bombed by Israel. They feel especially vulnerable because their homes are located opposite Israeli army bases on the demarcation line.

Zaidan Sarar, who lives in Om Al-Gamal on the border, is one of those who chose to leave their home and move to a rented apartment out of fear of the Israeli army. Sarar moved to an apartment block in Deir Al-Balah and abandoned his home, telling the Weekly he preferred spending all his income on rent rather than risk his safety. "When I recalled the corpses of children who were killed in the last war, I decided to do anything so my children don't suffer the same fate," he said. "This is why I sought to rent an apartment and leave my home which I spent all my life's savings to build."

Other families are grappling with overcrowding after opening their doors to homeless families. Gamal Al-Masri, 29, waits until night before returning to his home in Al-Nosayrat Refugee Camp in the centre of Gaza. Al-Masri's home currently accommodates his parents and younger siblings who sought him out after their home in Al-Maghazi Camp, east of Al-Nosayrat, was obliterated in the last war in Gaza. Al-Masri, who is married with five children, told the Weekly that he tries to spend as much time outside the house as possible because his three-bedroom home now houses 17 people. As winter approaches, his ability to stay out with co-workers or neighbours is diminishing, but he is still unable to live in the overcrowded house. Al-Masri's biggest problem is a shortage in warm covers to shield everyone from the harsh winter cold.

Al-Masri is not the only one who was obliged to take in his family after the Israeli army destroyed their homes during the war. In fact, he could be considered luckier than most who have had to house many more family members because of the war. Adel Sala, 43, had no choice but to take in two of his brothers' families after the Israeli army destroyed their homes in two separate air attacks. With 25 people now living in his four-bedroom house in Al-Qarara village, each room houses one family while the three men sleep in the fourth room. Sala admits that the living conditions are very difficult, complicated and awkward. For example, going to the bathroom requires prior scheduling, while he and his brothers go to the mosque for ablutions to avoid any embarrassment.

The scenes of hardship this winter are endless, not least of the children whose homes were demolished and had to move far away from their areas of residence. Now they must commute for long distances to reach their schools and also lack sufficient winter clothing to protect them against the bitter winter cold

Hopelessness takes hold

Hopelessness takes hold

While insults across the Palestinian rift continue to be traded, ordinary Palestinians see the national cause suffer at a time otherwise ripe for international solidarity, writes Saleh Al-Naami

---

Jamal Hussein, 39, couldn't find the words to console his wife when her hopes of leaving the Gaza Strip were dashed. They were supposed to travel to a hospital in Jordan for a procedure that would put an end to 15 years of suffering due to her inability to conceive. Hussein is a teacher in a Gaza City school and was hoping to take advantage of the summer holiday to have the procedure done in mid-July. Until 7 July, he had hoped that an agreement putting an end to the Palestinian domestic rift would be signed, and that this would lead to the Rafah Crossing being reopened as Egyptian officials had promised. "Following the close of the sixth dialogue round, it became clear that it was impossible for the two sides to reach an agreement, and that as a result my wife and I would have to wait another year hoping that conditions improve and that we'll be granted an opportunity to have this procedure done," he told Al-Ahram Weekly.

Hassan Al-Zari, 28, lives in Deir Al-Balah City in the central Gaza Strip. He holds a bachelor's degree in civil engineering, and following immense efforts won a grant to a Canadian university to pursue his graduate studies. Last month he tried to leave the Gaza Strip to travel via Cairo airport but he was unable to cross the border into Egypt. Officials in the Gaza Strip's Interior Ministry say that priority is given to individuals suffering from serious, chronic diseases, and to those with residency abroad. Travel is permitted for cases such as Hassan's only during a very limited period in which Egypt allows the border to be reopened. "I can hardly believe this," Al-Zari told the Weekly. "Obtaining a grant to study in a Canadian university was my life's dream, and now that it's been granted, the crossing has become my barrier."

Inshirah Ribah, 41, is a Palestinian who was born and raised in Libya and who married a Palestinian teacher from the Gaza Strip who was working in Libya. She now lives in Al-Maghazi Refugee Camp in the central Gaza Strip and hasn't seen her family in five years. In late July her youngest sister is going to marry a Palestinian living in Egypt, and although she wants to attend the wedding it seems impossible that she will be able to due to the crossing's closure. Like so many others, Inshirah blames her situation on the continued Palestinian domestic rift that grants external parties justification for besieging the Gaza Strip and isolating it from the rest of the world.

Lack of hope that the domestic rift may end and unity be restored has become a dominant feature of commentary in Gaza. Palestinians no longer hold any hope that the next dialogue rounds will produce a breakthrough leading to a final agreement. Mohamed Al-Shamali, 46, owns an electrical appliance store in the Al-Ramal neighbourhood of Gaza City, but since he can't stand sitting in his shop as long as there are no customers at the door, he closes it and goes to exchange sarcastic quips with the owners of neighbouring shops instead. One of these joked as he exhaled cigarette smoke, "All that remains is for the states of Gaza and the West Bank to recognise each other, exchange ambassadors, and begin signing commercial, trade and other bilateral agreements."

Indeed, the gap between the two sides' positions has widened and the war of insults between them remains ongoing. Spokesperson for the security agencies in the West Bank Adnan Al-Damiri says that Hamas has spent millions of dollars to establish a security apparatus in the West Bank. He says that West Bank security agencies seized $8.5 million illegally entering the Palestinian territories over the last five months, in addition to large caches of arms and explosives in Nablus, Hebron and Qalqilya.

Hamas figure Ayman Taha says that such statements are an "attempt to justify striking at the movement and doing away with it, and are evidence of the West Bank security agencies trying to make the national dialogue fail." In a statement to the Weekly, Taha said that the funds Al-Damiri had spoken of belonged to charitable organisations that "support the families of martyrs and prisoners, the orphans and the weak. These kinds of measures make these families' situations further deteriorate."

Taha says these measures have come at a time when the Salam Fayyad government is pursuing the resistance, arresting resistance fighters and seizing weapons. He holds Al-Damiri's comments as an example of "fabricating lies aimed at justifying the failure of the dialogue and granting excuses for continued targeting of Hamas in the West Bank," although he also believes that efforts to do away with Hamas will fail. Taha says that talk by the Fayyad government and its security agencies of Hamas planning a coup in the West Bank sounds like a "cracked record", and he questions: "If the Palestinian Authority [PA] is pursuing Hamas activists because they are planning a coup, then why are Islamic Jihad activists also being pursued?" He believes Hamas is being targeted due to its role in the resistance.

Deputy speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) Hassan Khureisheh has revealed that President Mahmoud Abbas has suggested that Hamas mandate five ministers to participate in a prospective national accord government, on condition that they represent their personal points of view and not the political views of Hamas. In a statement to the Weekly, Khureisheh clarified that Abbas made this offer during his recent meeting with PLC Speaker Aziz Duweik in Ramallah, and that he asked Hamas to name five ministers capable of adopting positions different to those of Hamas. They would have to accept the conditions stipulated by the Quartet, most prominently commitment to the agreements signed by the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), recognition of Israel, and renouncement of resistance on the basis of it being terrorism. Abbas justified his request by saying that only a government of this colour would be capable of lifting the siege on Gaza and overseeing its reconstruction.

Khureisheh says that during the meeting Abbas refused to enter the argument between Fatah and Hamas over Duweik being the speaker of the PLC following statements of PLC Hamas bloc leader Azzam Al-Ahmed, who said that the bloc no longer considers Duweik speaker. Khureisheh also says that Abbas denies that the security agencies have arrested anyone on the basis of their political and organisational affiliations, but rather only due to their possession of arms and "political money".

Abbas stresses that he has issued orders for no one to be mistreated during their detention or interrogation. According to Khureisheh, he and Duweik have confirmed to Abbas that these orders had been issued, but that the security agencies simply don't follow them. "We have told Abbas that most of those released from PA prisons in the West Bank have shown signs of being severely tortured." Khureisheh is pessimistic about the dialogue succeeding, saying that the dispute between Fatah and Hamas is not limited to the political programme but has grown to threaten personal interests in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Action and reaction has become the leading feature of relations between the Fatah and Hamas authorities.

It is ironic that the prospects for Palestinian dialogue have plummeted at the time Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has restated impossible conditions for agreeing to the establishment of a Palestinian state. He has again stipulated that the Palestinians recognise Israel as the state of the Jewish people, that they agree to solve the issue of refugees outside the borders of Israel, that Jerusalem remain the unified capital of Israel, and that any Palestinian state is demilitarised. In other words, at a time that many Palestinians were placing their hopes on Netanyahu's rightwing government being isolated due to its extremist positions, the Palestinian rift allows Netanyahu to hold tight to his stances with a minimum of pressure from the international community. Thus the Palestinians who were betting on a settlement have lost a negotiations battle while Palestinians who believe in resistance as a strategic option are consumed with efforts towards the lifting of the Gaza siege.

Empty words

Empty words

Fatah and Hamas appear able to agree just one thing, that elections be postponed. Saleh Al-Naami examines the causes, and ramifications, of a dispute that serves to exacerbate the suffering of ordinary Palestinians

---

Beneath the blazing sun Ahmed Al-Sheify continues to search the lists of names tacked to the wall of a school next to a police headquarters in the west of Gaza. They contain the names of everyone entitled to a $100 payment from the Ministry of Social Affairs of the Palestinian government. Suddenly Al-Sheify's face lights up. His name is on one of the lists.

The payment, supplemented by aid from the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), which supplies basic food necessities, allows Al-Sheify's family of six to survive. The thing that most frustrates him is that he will be forced to live on such handouts until an agreement is reached that can end internal Palestinian divisions.

Al-Sheify is not alone in despairing at the petty back-and-forth squabbling between Fatah and Hamas. Each group blames the other for the failure of the latest round of talks in Cairo. Amid conflicting statements issued by the two factions one thing is clear. It is security arrangements that are at the heart of their most recent disagreements.

Majed Faraj, a member of the Fatah delegation, said Fatah had demanded Hamas recognise the existence of the security forces in Gaza before Hamas came to power. He also said Fatah had demanded the step-by-step return of those security forces to their posts -- they amount to 10,000 men -- as well as a review of the security forces introduced after Hamas took control. According to Faraj, Hamas is seeking to limit return to 3,000, starting with just 300. He also claimed Hamas was asking to send its own forces to the West Bank under some sort of a quota system, an idea Fatah has refused in its entirety.

Salah Al-Bardawil, a member of Hamas delegation to Cairo, accuses Fatah leaders of adopting an uncompromising position that will shatter any earlier consensus. He was taken by surprise when Fatah demanded "an end to Hamas's rule in Gaza", arguing that such a stance undermines the basis of dialogue between the two factions.

Speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly Al-Bardawil said that Fatah had objected to Egyptian proposals calling for the formation of a joint committee to oversee the administration of the Gaza Strip, as well as a joint security force. He also said Fatah had refused to discuss the issue of political prisoners.

Ashraf Gomaa, a senior Fatah legislator, refutes such charges, and has accused Hamas of trying to reach a political deal that guarantees its continued control over Gaza. Gomaa called on Hamas to adopt a strategy more open to Fatah the better to deal with the international community.

"It is clear that people are looking after their own interests, especially when it comes to political detainees. The Fatah movement is against political arrests. We do not arrest anyone. We are seeking the release of prisoners in the West Bank, and this is being done gradually," said Gomaa.

Fatah and Hamas at least agreed to postpone elections that were scheduled to be held on 25 January. The Weekly has learned that an understanding to this effect was reached in the second round of talks held last Sunday in Cairo. Informed sources say both Fatah and Hamas consider postponement in their interest.

While Fatah leaders are publicly in favour of elections now, in private they are worried that they will be defeated at the ballot box. They fear the Palestinian Authority's failure to persuade Palestinians, especially those in the West Bank, to reach a settlement with Israel, and continued Israeli settlement building and land confiscation in the West Bank, combined with draconian restrictions on movement, will weigh heavily against their electoral chances. Fatah is also worried that voters will exact a heavy price for its security forces' violations of human rights under Salam Fayyad's government.

Nor does Hamas see elections as being in its own interest as long as Gaza remains under siege. It fears that many who voted for the movement in the last elections will desert.

Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri has said that the movement is predicating elections on a number of conditions. It is demanding the restructuring of the Electoral Commission and the Judicial Committee which oversee elections. It also wants guarantees that the siege of Gaza will end, that Egypt be the one to work towards Palestinian reconciliation, and that elections to the Palestinian Authority be conducted in tandem with legislative and presidential polls. Hamas is also demanding an end to political detentions, the release of all members of parliament currently under arrest, and international guarantees that MPs will not be arrested after they are elected.

"Political indicators confirm the inability of the two Palestinian factions to bridge the divide between them, which means that elections will not be held on schedule," says Hassan Khreisheh, independent second deputy speaker of the Legislative Council. "If the elections are not held on time the Legislative Council will continue to exist along current lines, i.e. those who are from the West Bank will remain in the West Bank, and those from Gaza in Gaza."

Should that happen, argues Khreisheh, President Mahmoud Abbas will lose constitutional legitimacy, opening a political vacuum that will remain until presidential elections are held.

The Weekly has learned that Egypt requested the Hamas delegation in the Cairo to allow Fatah members and Gaza residents to travel to Bethlehem in order to participate in Fatah's General Conference. A Hamas source confirmed that Hamas would respond "positively" to Egypt's request, taking into account security conditions. The source stressed that Hamas would not seek to hamper Fatah's Sixth Conference. However, he added, "some of those associated with the Fatah Conference raise security concerns and it will be difficult for us to allow them to travel".

"For this reason, those who want to travel must submit a request to the government in Gaza, in order that their files can be checked. Another problem is that there are still some people who have expressed their request to travel verbally, and have yet to submit a written request."

In the meantime, Palestinians are paying close attention to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's stance, not least his refusal to take a single step towards resolving the conflict through peaceful means. This, in turn, affects the credibility of the positions put forward by President Abbas and Fayyad's government. Netanyahu has openly challenged the US administration by rejecting American demands to freeze settlement-building in occupied East Jerusalem. At the weekly Israeli cabinet meeting on Sunday Netanyahu said Jews could live in Jerusalem wherever they pleased.

Netanyahu's challenge followed reports in Haaretz newspaper that Israeli decision-makers had started to take Obama's admonitions lightly, characterising the US president as naïve. According to the newspaper, the attitude was most deeply embedded among senior staff in Netanyahu's office. According to the report the most popular joke circulating among the Israeli prime minister's senior advisors is as follows:

"What does an American do when he discovers his house is a wreck, or that his washing machine is not working?

Easy, he calls on Obama to give a speech. Problem solved."

Zero sum game

At noon on 13 May the sounds of laughter and joviality could be clearly heard all the way at the end of the corridor leading to the large meeting room on the fifth floor at one of the major ministries in Gaza City. A number of leaders from Fatah and Hamas were sitting around a table to focus on finding formulas to bring their points of view closer regarding reconciliation between the two factions. The atmosphere of the meeting, which concluded with lunch, was friendly and both sides agreed to meet again at the home of one of the Hamas leaders in Gaza.

Sources told Al-Ahram Weekly that several similar meetings had taken place in the West Bank and Gaza between leaders from both sides, mostly members of parliament from each faction. Moneeb Al-Masri, a prominent Palestinian businessman, was keen to convey to the West Bank some of the ideas that were discussed in Gaza and at length by representatives of both groups. While Fatah refuses to admit that prospects for reconciliation are under discussion, Hamas and independent Palestinian figures -- along with the media that is closely following developments -- insist that many proposals are being debated.

One informed source told the Weekly that Hamas and Fatah representatives had reached tentative points of agreement on some issues, while direct and indirect talks continue between the two sides regarding outstanding issues. The source said that to avoid any setbacks, both groups have agreed that they will not announce the outcome until all issues are settled and approved by the leaders of the two groups.

Apparently, the two sides have agreed on the following points, and only await the approval of faction leaders. First, both sides will inform Cairo that they have come to an agreement on the Egyptian reconciliation plan. They will later decide if they want to include some points of concern or add them in an addendum; these concerns, meanwhile, should not block Hamas from signing the proposal. Second, both sides would begin releasing detainees in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and set up a mechanism to deal with supporters and institutions affiliated to each group in each region, including organisational and charity groups.

Third, the government in Ramallah must be more cooperative in ending the suffering of the residents of Gaza, such as paying for the fuel needed to operate the sole power station in Gaza to end daily power outages across the Strip that last at least eight hours. Fourth, both sides must show flexibility in reopening the Rafah Crossing to end smuggling through illicit tunnels.

According to the source, all these ideas were presented by Hamas in order to bridge the gap between the two sides, and were tentatively approved by representatives from Fatah who emphasised that senior Fatah leaders will have the final say, and hence their initial approval does not commit the group to these ideas. "We're still a long way away from reaching a final agreement," the source cautioned. "Signing the Egyptian plan is the first step on a long road of agreeing on a large number of details regarding elections, security, reforming the Palestine Liberation Organisation [PLO], and other issues."

The source added that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas does not fully support these understandings, and wants Hamas to first sign the Egyptian proposal before discussing a final agreement. Abbas's position is what caused Fatah leaders to deny progress is being made.

While Hamas leaders try to avoid discussing the understandings reached so far, Mahmoud Al-Zahhar, member of the group's politburo, confirmed that Hamas is waiting for a final answer from Fatah regarding ideas presented by the group. "We suggested specific mechanisms and we asked them to think about it, and we are waiting for their response," Al-Zahhar stated. "If we reach agreement, we will go to Egypt and we can make it part of the deal or an appendix to it."

According to the Hamas leader, contacts with Fatah are focussed on two major points: first, the Central Elections Committee, and second, the PLO. Al-Zahhar believes that Fatah is being responsive. He added that Hamas wants the electoral committee to be based on mutual consultations, while Fatah wants it to be by mutual agreement. He criticised Abbas's statements that no progress will be made until Hamas first signs the Egyptian proposal without revision. "If that is his opinion, then he shouldn't hold his breath."

Al-Zahhar further mocked statements by Fatah members that Hamas suffers from internal divisions. "He who lives in a glass house should not throw stones," he said.

Azzam Al-Ahmed, head of Fatah's parliamentary faction in the Palestinian Legislative Council, confirmed that direct meetings have been held between representatives from both sides in Gaza and the West Bank but denied that anything of substance was being discussed. Al-Ahmed underlined his group's commitment to what was agreed upon in Cairo, urging Hamas to sign the Egyptian plan and express its concerns at the time of implementation.

However, a senior figure close to ongoing reconciliation efforts told the Weekly that despite optimism about recent meetings and many indicators that both sides believe their political futures are bleak without reconciliation, the probability of an agreement in the near future is slim because of foreign interference. The source said that Abbas, under pressure from the US and Israel, is now insisting that Hamas accept the conditions of the Quartet, including recognition of Israel, renouncing armed resistance against the occupation as terrorism, and recognising all past agreements signed by the Palestinians and Israel. The source pointed out that this requirement was never part of the Egyptian plan.

"While Israel insists on continuing its settlement building in the West Bank and Judaicisation of Jerusalem, and the world sees Israel as the obstacle to peace, it is unreasonable to condition [Palestinian] reconciliation with accepting the Quartet conditions," argued the source. According to him, Abbas is facing strong counter pressure from members of Fatah's Central Committee and Revolutionary Council to reject US-Israeli diktat and embrace reconciliation, because the status quo does not serve the group's interests.

The source continued that there is restlessness in Fatah's ranks, as expressed in a statement by Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades -- Fatah's military wing -- that threatened to assassinate Mohamed Dahlan, a member of Fatah's Central Committee, for "conspiring" with occupation forces to obstruct efforts for national reconciliation. The source also pointed out another problem, namely escalating tensions between Hamas and Cairo compounded by accusations of torture of Hamas detainees in Egyptian jails. The source continued that Cairo's hard line position, which insists that Hamas sign the Egyptian plan without revisions, blocks any possibility for Hamas to change its position but also save face with its popular base.

In short, if the Palestinians are unable to free themselves from the restrictions placed on them by foreign parties, there is no guarantee that direct talks between Fatah and Hamas will be successful. In the next four months, which is the timeline of indirect negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, there is little hope that attempts to end divisions amongst Palestinians will lead to anything positive.

Abbas's popularity takes a leap

Hassan waited more than 10 minutes outside the stationary shop on Friday before the shop owner opened the door to let him in. The vendor and a group of his neighbourhood shopkeeper friends were transfixed on a small television screen in the shop, listening to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's address at the UN General Assembly.

The shopkeeper and his friends were not the only ones in Al-Nossayrat Refugee Camp, the second largest camp in the Gaza Strip, who stopped work to follow events at the UN. The camp, which is usually bustling with activity, appeared as if it was under curfew, since almost everyone wanted to listen to Abbas's historic speech. What he said was well received on the Palestinian street and highly praised by large sections of the population.

Intissar, a college student, told the Weekly that "this was the first time that Abbas adopts the Palestinian cause forcefully and unequivocally, by truthfully revealing Israel's actions for what they are. I believe that if Abbas continues on this track he will become a national leader and hero."

Some Palestinians were angry with the leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad who were quick to slam and criticise Abbas's move. Ahmed, a teacher at a school in central Gaza, could not fathom why Hamas and Islamic Jihad adopted the same positions as Israel and the US regarding Abbas's plan and speech. "Enough bickering," he told the Weekly. "I expected Hamas and Jihad to stand behind Abbas in confronting Israel and the US. There is a dire and pressing need for the two groups to change their attitudes entirely to become more patriotic and not so partisan."

But there are still those who doubt Abbas's intentions and expect him to deviate from the positions he declared in his speech. Khaled, who works at a government agency in Gaza, believes that after his address Abbas should now demonstrate that he has genuinely changed his outlook. The most important step would be to order Palestinian Authority (PA) security agencies to immediately halt all cooperation with Israel on security issues.

Only a minority of Palestinians would agree with Khaled; even those that disagree with Abbas on other levels cannot accept the hostile positions of their leaders towards the president. Ahmed Youssef, a leading figure in Hamas who previously served as political adviser to Gaza Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, disapproved of his group's position and its decision to ban any activities in the Gaza Strip that support Abbas's move. "No one accepts Hamas rejection of a step that is supported by the Arab nation, the Islamic Conference, Turkey and most world countries," Youssef argued. "Hamas must reconsider its position entirely."

Nassereddin Al-Shaer, former deputy prime minister and minister of education in Haniyeh's government, who is also a young leader in Hamas, did not hesitate to telephone Abbas in New York to express his support and praise the positions stated in his speech. It was clear that the positive response on the Palestinian street caught Hamas off guard and forced it to retract, especially after Abbas asserted that he will pursue national reconciliation.

Yehia Moussa, a leading Hamas figure and deputy leader of the group's parliamentary bloc, welcomed Abbas's position: "What is needed now is for words to become action," Moussa told the Weekly. "Restoring national unity is the guarantee needed to recover national rights, and we must invest all our efforts to accomplish this mission." He added that the positions expressed by the US and Israel during the UN General Assembly session clearly demonstrate that the PA cannot rely on current options.

Moussa indicated that Hamas criticised Abbas for going to the UN without coordinating the step with his partners on the Palestinian arena, making it a "non-consensual" move that does not serve national reconciliation.

Moussa emphasised that what is needed now is the implementation of the reconciliation agreement that was signed by Fatah and Hamas several months ago, especially restructuring the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) along new national and democratic principles to transform it into a national institution that truly represents all the Palestinian people. He added that it is pertinent to quickly form a coalition government to manage the affairs of areas under the PA's control during the interim phase that precedes elections. He added that agreement on the person who will head this government and its programme is something that was agreed upon in the Cairo deal.

Khalil Shaheen, a writer, believes that the mass welcome of Abbas upon his return from New York indicates that the Palestinian people no longer accept a return to "farcical" negotiations under any circumstances. "Abbas's reception proves that the people uphold national principles, and the people must embrace all the steps that the leadership takes, whether by transferring the entire Palestinian issue to the UN and international agencies or implementing the reconciliation agreement."

Meanwhile, it was revealed that Abbas threatened US President Barack Obama that he would dissolve the PA if he were unable to implement his political programme. Israeli television reported on Sunday that the US administration and Europe informed Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, on the sidelines of his visit to the UN, that Abbas is about to take decisive steps -- including dissolving the PA -- if real progress is not achieved on Palestinian statehood and the future of talks with Israel.

The television report quoted informed Israeli political sources as saying that Abbas was unyielding in his response to Obama's "firm" demand not to submit the Palestinian request to the Security Council for full UN membership.

Abbas maintained that the Palestinian people "are fed up with negotiations that Israel uses to impose facts on the ground" and that he will not "betray his people's cause and become a bridge for realising Israel's expansionist dreams." The sources said that US officials told Israel's representatives that Israel will face "a real catastrophe" if Abbas carries out his threat of dissolving the PA, adding that Abbas made it clear to the Americans that the PA refuses to be in the service of Israel.

Sources said Abbas told Obama: "We created the PA for the sake of peace and protecting the rights of our people, not squandering them. I am not willing to be remembered in the history of my people and the Arab world as the one responsible for Israel's continued murderous and destructive policies against peace in the region." Sources continued that Obama and his advisers closely listened to Abbas's speech at the UN, and the White House was stunned by the entire address. The US administration is in consultations with Arab countries to avoid any negative backlash that could affect Washington's credibility if it uses its veto power in the Security Council to block Palestine's membership of the UN.

Meanwhile, Palestinian media reported on Monday morning that a Palestinian official said that Obama threatened Abbas that he would hold him directly responsible if a single drop of US blood is spilled if Washington is forced to use its veto power, since a US veto could mean that Arab masses would attack US interests in the region.

It is obvious that Abbas's popularity has risen sharply and he was able restore his stature as a patriotic Palestinian leader. But continued support for him by the Palestinian masses will depend on him not returning to the negotiating table and implementing the reconciliation agreement

Abbas battling on many fronts

Omar did not expect his family to be so distraught and despondent when he came home Friday to his home in the town of Al-Khedr on the outskirts of Bethlehem. His father's health took a sharp blow after occupation forces seized large sections of family land to expand the Jewish settlement of Nogdeem, where Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman lives. Omar, a university student and an activist in Al-Shebiba movement, the on-campus student arm of Fatah, was one of thousands of Palestinians who welcomed Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas upon his return from New York, in an expression of support of what he said in his speech to the UN General Assembly.

Omar, whose family is in shock, believes that Abbas should now insist on refusing to return to the negotiating table if Israel does not freeze settlements in the West Bank and Jerusalem. Also, that he should reject the suggestion by the Quartet to resume talks with Israel. Omar's position represents a majority of Palestinians who believe that Abbas's address at the UN signaled the end of negotiations with Israel if Tel Aviv does not commit to freezing settlements. This is something that the Palestinian Authority (PA) has finally realised.

Complicating matters further for the PA is the fact that the Israeli government announced at the end of last week a plan to build 1,100 new residential units in the settlement of Gilo in occupied Jerusalem. Yasser Abed Rabbo, member of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), said that it was impossible to combine settlements on Palestinian land and continuing negotiations with Israel.

Meanwhile, Israel declared that it accepts the general guidelines of the Quartet statement. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said that his cabinet can live with the statement, since it did not call for an end to settlements, or indicate a specific frame of reference for negotiations. While Netanyahu is demanding that the Palestinians do not place any prerequisites, such as freezing settlements, he himself is demanding a series of preconditions for the Palestinians. Most prominently, conceding beforehand the Ghor region of the Jordan Valley, which represents 30 per cent of the West Bank. Essentially, Netanyahu is asking the Palestinians to surrender 51 per cent of the area of the West Bank before restarting talks.

The Palestinian position does not seem to be rejected by Israel but by the US, which criticised the Israeli decision but at the same time believes there should be a response to the Quartet proposal. US Ambassador in Israel Dan Shapiro said that Obama's administration rejects the Palestinian demand to halt settlement building before the Palestinians agree to restart talks. "On principle, the US does not support preconditions that state that a freeze on settlements is a prerequisite for negotiations," Shapiro was quoted in the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot as saying. "Keep in mind we have objected to Israeli settlements in the West Bank for a long time. What we have always said is that we believe that direct talks is the only way to resolve the conflict, and it cannot be solved except by the parties themselves through talks that begin without preconditions."

Washington not only adopted Israel's position, but even began exerting economic pressure. The US Congress decided to freeze the transfer of $200 million in aid to the PA, which will affect the latter's ability to meet its financial commitments towards tens of thousands of government employees in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Gaza will especially suffer because the PA announced that in light of the US decision, it will not be able to pay the cost of fuel for the sole power plant in the Gaza Strip.

While Washington is directly defending Netanyahu's position, some Israelis are strongly criticising him and holding him responsible for the freeze in negotiations. Haaretz newspaper described his cabinet's policies of continuing settlement building, especially in the West Bank, as "open provocation". In an editorial on Sunday, the newspaper argued that Netanyahu's settlement policy is an obstacle to achieving a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders. It added that Netanyahu's insistence "to challenge the world and continue settlement building in East Jerusalem undermines his call to restart talks, and could in fact result in serious ramifications for Israel."

Palestinian sources confirmed that Arab parties have agreed to the US demand and began pressuring the PA to reverse its refusal of the Quartet proposal and immediately return to the negotiating table with Israel. Several Palestinian officials told journalists off the record that countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Morocco and Jordan are putting pressure to relaunch talks and not continuing the gamble on Palestinian statehood at the UN.

One of the main reasons behind the Palestinian refusal of the Quartet's positions and why Palestinian leaders now view the group suspiciously is because of the actions of Quartet envoy Tony Blair, who is accused by many Palestinian political figures of being entirely biased to Israel and purposefully not conveying Palestinian views to Quartet members.

MP Bassam Al-Salhi, secretary-general of the Palestinian People Party who attends Palestinian leadership meetings, said that Blair has "lost all credibility among the Palestinian leadership and there is extreme caution in dealing with him since he has become a junior employee of the Israeli government." In a news conference in Ramallah, Al-Salhi added: "An increasing number of Palestinian officials are demanding a boycott of Blair because he did not accurately convey Palestinian positions to international parties and is clearly biased towards Israel and its outlook. Several members in the Palestinian leadership have called for a boycott of Blair and not welcoming him in the Palestinian territories. Blair has lost his credibility and is not impartial as he should be in this post."

Al-Salhi emphasised that criticism of Blair's actions is no longer confined to leadership circles in the PA but now includes civic society, noting that there are calls for a boycott by the public. He also warned that if Blair continues as the representative of the Quartet his influence will become even weaker.

The clash between the Palestinian leadership and Israel about the Quartet proposal did not end tensions between the PA and the leadership of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, which continued to criticise Abbas for going to the UN to ask for membership for a Palestinian state. Fatah, which is headed by Abbas, was especially troubled by continued criticism by Gaza Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Abbas, and emphasis that creating a Palestinian state on any part of Palestine is acceptable as long as it does not recognise Israel.

Fatah spokesman Ahmed Assaf described Haniyeh's statements as "political ignorance". "Haniyeh's position means that Hamas approves the creation of a Palestinian state within temporary borders, in the same manner that Israel wants," Assaf asserted in a written statement. "Statements by Haniyeh and other Hamas leaders about the creation of a state on any land is political ignorance resulting from their lack of political and national experience. They are satisfied to just rule Gaza through force, and in this way justify detaching and removing it from the Palestinian dynamic, as witnessed these days."

Meanwhile, a number of young Hamas leaders continued to support Abbas's recent plan. Sources told Al-Ahram Weekly that former Deputy Prime Minister Nasreddin Al-Shaer and former Planning Minister Samir Abu Eta, both members of Haniyeh's tenth cabinet, visited Abbas on Saturday at his home in Ramallah. The two men expressed their appreciation and support for "the courageous position expressed in Abbas's historic address to the UN General Assembly in the name of the Palestinian people". Al-Shaer and Abu Eta described Abbas's position as "an honest expression of the ambition of the Palestinian people and their aspiration to achieve freedom and independence".

The Palestinian leadership currently faces a difficult test of credibility. While Abbas believes that returning to negotiations under the shadow of settlements would be political suicide for him on the domestic front, at the same time rejecting the Quartet proposal and continuing on the UN path to statehood would precipitate more economic sanctions by the US at this critical time